Experts reminded: rare earth energy needs to be cautious

The low-lying rare earth market for many years has been warming since the second half of last year, and the price of products has been rising. It is now approaching the record high. Driven by the continuous soaring prices of rare earths, the boom in production expansion is also higher than a wave. For this reason, industry experts warned that the rare earth energy expansion needs to be cautious.

The price "blowout" rose

According to experts from Baotou Rare Earth Research Institute, since 1998, the price of rare earths has fallen sharply due to overcapacity. In 2004, prices fell to the lowest level. When the rare earth product market is in the doldrums, a large backlog of niobium oxide, antimony oxide and other products is sold at a price of only 0.7 million to 0.9 million yuan (t price, the same below), the lowest level of niobium oxide is 47,000 to 5 million yuan, and the metal niobium is 70,000 tons. Between ~9 million. From the second half of 2005, especially since this year, the prices of most rare earth products have been rising. By the beginning of September this year, the prices of antimony oxide and antimony oxide have soared to 12,000 yuan, and that of antimony oxide rose to 130,000 yuan. It has reached 180,000 yuan and has risen nearly twice as much. Other antimony oxide, antimony oxide, antimony oxide, etc. have also risen to about 120,000 yuan. Nowadays, rare earth prices are still rising and are sprinting toward the highest level in history.

Experts in the industry believe that the primary reason for the rare earth hot weather is the gradual emergence of the effects of the national macro-control policies. In recent years, China has successively introduced a number of policies and measures to control the unfavorable situation of the rare earth industry, such as the indiscriminate exploitation of resources, the decentralized industrial layout, and the chaotic production and business order.

In addition, strong downstream demand has further boosted the price of rare earths. Although rare earth prices have risen since the second half of last year, domestic and international demand has increased significantly. The recovery of the automotive industry and the electronics industry at home and abroad has boosted the demand for rare earth industries. Experts expect that the strong demand for cesium and ytterbium in automotive catalytic converters and permanent magnets will continue into 2009; this is due to the current NdFeB magnets. In the period of rapid development, as the output of rare earth magnets grows, the market demand for yttrium oxide, lanthanum oxide, lanthanum oxide, lanthanum oxide and its metal products as raw materials is stimulated, resulting in the quantity of rare earth products related to NdFeB permanent magnet materials. Prices have increased significantly. At the same time, tension in the supply of raw materials has intensified, prices are soaring, production costs of rare earths have increased, and rising prices of rare earths have become inevitable.

Expanding production boom

It is understood that, last year, the output of ion-type rare earth minerals in China grew rapidly, even some new areas of rare earth separation plants in the southern part of the country, the repeated construction is very serious. In 2005, the output of ionic rare earth minerals was 44,000 tons, which was an increase of 14,000 tons compared with 2004, accounting for 68% of the national increase rate. In particular, the mining volume of Guangdong Province is rapidly expanding. By 2005, the output was 3.75 in Jiangxi Province. Times. In 2004, Fujian Province produced only about 1,000 tons, but in 2005 it doubled and grew rapidly. The same is true in Guangxi and Hunan. In the first half of 2006, Jiangxi and Guangdong provinces will add about 10,000 tons of separation capacity, and the total ore separation capacity in the south will reach 5.5 tons. This does not include small enterprises with a separation capacity of about 300 tons.

According to statistics, in the past year, with the expansion of production by various manufacturers, China's output of rare earth mineral products reached 118,700 tons, accounting for more than 96% of global production, an increase of 21%; output of rare earth smelting and separation products was 103,900 tons, a year-on-year increase. 12%; rare earth permanent magnetic material production was 35,200 tons, an increase of 31% over the previous year.

Expert alert
In an interview with a reporter, experts from the Inner Mongolia Rare Earth Association said that at present, the annual demand for rare earths in the world is about 80,000 to 90,000 tons of rare earth oxides, while the annual rare earth concentrates in China are about 200,000 tons. More than 200,000 tons, the actual output has exceeded the annual demand of the global rare earth market. Although experienced many years of market downturn, the smelting and roasting capacity of rare earth concentrates in Baotou City is still as high as 280,000 tons, which exceeds the country's national limit of concentrate production of nearly 3 times in 2006, and the surplus situation remains severe. Because there is no new driving force in the consumption field, there is no essential change in the relationship between supply and demand for rare earths in China, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still outstanding. An information center in the United Kingdom once predicted that by 2007, the total demand for rare earths in the world will be 98,000 to 110,000 tons. At present, China's rare earth production capacity has exceeded 180,000 tons per year.

To this end, experts have warned that the current oversupply situation of the rare earth market is already very serious, excessive expansion will inevitably lead to imbalance in market supply and demand, is likely to lead to another sharp decline in rare earth prices, and once the market decline, the company's losses will be greater . At the same time, too large rare earth smelting and separation capacity and low industrial concentration will further exacerbate the waste of rare earth resources.

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