With the increase of environmental protection requirements in various countries, the production cost of fluorinated products represented by “R22†(difluorochloromethane) has been greatly increased in the developed countries of Europe and America. Under this background, China with fluorite resources will accept it as its own responsibility. The transfer of the global fluorine chemical industry. The replacement of refrigerants and the promulgation of the "conditions for the entry of hydrogen fluoride market conditions" have made China's fluorinated industries crowned with the gold industry and the sunrise industry, and the investment boom in the fluorination industry has also risen.
The investment in fluorination that has emerged in various parts of the country since last year is reminiscent of the large-scale expansion of the fluorination industry five years ago, and the subsequent two-year adjustment is equally impressive. Recently, the drop in the price of R22 and chloroform has caused people to worry about the “money†scene of the fluorinated industry. Is China's fluorine chemical industry making similar mistakes? How will the fluorination market in the capital market be interpreted? With many questions from the market, the Securities Times reporter visited the Yangtze River Delta, which is known as China's fluorinating base.
Increased price fluctuations
In the Wusong area of ​​Shanghai, many road names are “fluoro†gas. Road names such as fluorine source road, fluoridation road, and F5 roads are all related to “fluorineâ€. Sanaifu’s headquarters is located on the fluorine source road. .
At the time of the financial crisis from 2008 to 2009, San Aifu was faced with a large inventory backlog. Some production facilities had to suspend maintenance for up to six months. The net profit of the company was only 18.87 million yuan. However, compared with the past, with the improvement of the fluorination industry boom, San Aifu achieved operating income of 1.28 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 104% year-on-year; and a net profit of 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165.6 times. The most lucrative quarter of the company’s listing in 18 years.
It is understood that the advantage of San Aifu is the back end of the fluorinated industrial chain, so it is necessary to purchase the raw materials of methyl chloride and a small amount of R22. In the first quarter of this year, although the prices of methyl chloride and R22 were already high, the gross profit margin of San Aifu reached 38%, which was a year-on-year increase of 27%. Since the beginning of the second quarter, the prices of methyl chloride and R22 have both fallen. The price of R22 has been lowered from about 35,000 yuan/ton in the previous period to 25,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of R125 and R32 in downstream products of San Aifu have remained at a relatively high level. Therefore, the fall in raw material prices will increase the gross profit of San Aifu.
In the downstream of the fluorine chemical industry in China, the price fluctuations of the raw materials chloromethane and R22 reflect, to a certain extent, the market supply of fluorine chemical products at the end of the industrial chain.
On April 20 this year, San Aifu held a general meeting of shareholders and a participant told reporters that Wei Aihua, the chairman of San Aifu, pointed out at the time that the price of fluorine-containing materials would increase exponentially, which would inevitably attract more investors to join fluorine. Competing in the chemical industry, from the completion of major domestic fluorine chemical company projects, the front-end products of the fluorination industry may experience overcapacity, and prices may change accordingly.
Today, although the price of R22 has risen to 27,000 yuan / ton, but their fluctuations have caused many concerns and worries in the market. In the interview with the reporter, Li Aifu’s director-general Li Li admits that since April, due to the fluctuation of methyl chloride and R22 prices, the company has received advice from institutional investors and ordinary shareholders almost every day. The issues involved include whether the industry’s capacity is surplus. The price of R22 will rise or fall in the future, and the market supply of chloroform will be tight or loose.
Investment hot spots around
The concerns of the market are not unreasonable. With the increase in the degree of fluorinated products, the enthusiasm for investment in the fluorinated industry has also risen steadily.
According to the provisions of the Montreal Protocol, global R22 production capacity will gradually be eliminated. At present, R22 production facilities in western developed countries such as Europe and America have been shut down since 2010; China is a developing country, and R22 production capacity will be shut down gradually since 2013. Therefore, with the abundant fluorite resources and the existing fluorinated infrastructure, our fluorinated companies are following the trend of global fluorination to China.
Zhejiang Quzhou is the largest fluorinated industrial base in China and is known as the “China Fluorine Metroâ€. It was awarded the title of “National Torch Plan Zhejiang Quzhou Fluoro-silicone New Material Characteristic Industrial Base†by the Ministry of Science and Technology and emerged as Juhua Group and Kangpeng Chemical. Fluorine silicon industry clusters such as Zhongtian Fluorine Silicon and other companies are the core.
The enthusiasm for the expansion of the fluorination industry was fully reflected in Quzhou, Zhejiang. Walking in the fluoridation base in Zhangzhou, from time to time, trucks with full load of gas can be seen heading towards the gate. What makes reporters curious is that there is a large plot of land in the southwestern part of the base that has just been demolished but has not yet been cleared. This area was originally referred to by the locals as "the factory in the village." However, because the Zhuozhou municipal government hopes to develop the local fluorination industry, this zone has been levied by the government. Many local fluorinated enterprises in Bozhou have had a keen interest in the plot and want to reserve space for the expansion of the company.
According to materials provided to reporters by a fluorinated enterprise in Zhangzhou, the company is planning to spend approximately RMB 1.6 billion on projects such as tetrafluoroethylene and its downstream products, new fluorine refrigerants, and in this fund, it also includes purchases. The right to use part of the above land.
In fact, since the booming of the fluorination industry, the construction of fluorinated bases has flourished. The slogans such as Fuxin in Liaoning, Ganzhou in Jiangxi, Zhangzhou in Hunan, and Wuwei in Gansu have all been proposed. The fluorination industry's investment fever that has emerged from all over the place has made fluorinated companies feel very deep. The above-mentioned fluorine chemical enterprise executives in Ganzhou told the reporter that since the second half of last year, the company will often receive letters of invitation for investment invitations. Many fluorinated industrial parks give The investment incentives are still very attractive, not only including tax relief, but also tied to fluorite resources.
However, despite the large amount of investment in the above areas, "quality" is worth exploring. According to the reporter's understanding, such chemical companies as the Sinochem Group intends to invest RMB 1 billion to build a fluoridation base in Zhangzhou, and the fluorinated workers established in Liaoning's RMB 10 billion seem to be generous operations, but the projects involved are mostly concentrated in the front-end products of the fluorination industry. Similar to the annual output of 68,000 tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride production line, annual production of 40,000 tons of hydrofluoric acid production line and other projects, the gold content is not high.
Front-end product looms
Although the performance of fluorochemical listed companies soared last year, it is not easy for investors and even professional institutional investors to grasp the future trend of the industry. It is reported that many organizations organized teams to research and develop fluoridation laboratories in Quzhou, Zhejiang last year. However, they concluded that the market for fluorinated workers had reached the top and eventually opted to evacuate, and thus missed the concept of fluorochemical workers since the fourth quarter of last year. The big rally.
Today, the stock price of fluorochemical listed companies has risen sharply, but there are mixed judgments on whether the industry can maintain high economic conditions. During the interview in Quzhou, Zhejiang, the reporter coincided with a researcher who was currently investigating the Korean QFII. He was very concerned about the productivity increase of the company. It can be seen that the organization is also paying close attention to the development trend of the industry.
In the interview, many people in the industry believe that the price of fluorinated products still has room to rise. The current gross profit margin of fluorine chemical products reflects the rational return of the value of the fluorine industry in the market and is not simply a stir.
The basis for the above judgments mainly comes from two aspects. First, the characteristics of the fluorine chemical industry chain, the complexity of the fluorine chemical products, the more the industrial chain goes to the back end, the value of its products will increase by a geometric increase. Taking R22 as an example, it can not only be sold directly on the market as a refrigerant agent, but it can also be used as a raw material for new generation refrigerants 1234yf and R410. The current price of R22 is about 26,000 yuan/ton, and it is made of 1234yf. Its market price will reach more than 100,000 yuan/ton. It is this amplification that ensures the profitability of the back-end products.
On the other hand, the performance of companies such as San Aifu also proved that the industry is still in a high degree of prosperity. In the first quarter of this year, Aifu's gross margin reached 38%, and the company has become a market leader.
Compared with San Aifu's products, which mainly focus on the back end of the industrial chain, some people in the industry are more cautious about the prospects of front-end product manufacturers in the industrial chain. An executive of a fluorine chemical listed company in Zhejiang told the reporter that from the current rapid expansion of the fluorinated industry, some surplus front-end products such as hydrogen fluoride seem to be foreseen.
The impact of rapid expansion has already appeared. The profit mainly focuses on the gross margin of 23.2% in the first quarter of this year's Juhua shares relative to the front-end product R22. The average gross profit margin of the company last year was 28.03%.
The above executives believe that the rapid expansion of production capacity will exacerbate competition, thereby promoting the improvement of corporate technology and the upgrading of industrial structure. In the new round of the fluorine chemical industry expansion, whoever has the leading technology and high product quality, and has taken the lead in completing industrial upgrading, the risk of overcapacity can be avoided in a timely manner, so as to obtain greater market returns.
"Achieving more than expectations" is the industry's overview of China's fluorination industry's economic prosperity. Now that the investment boom is surging, and the capacity expansion is rapid, it remains to be seen whether the industry can continue to write more than expected stories.
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